So, this got me thinking.
25 January 2013
At the time I am writing this, only the opening statements of this debate have been posted, and so there isn't much to go on.
I believe that Windows 8 is the future...well, at least for the next two to three years. I do not think that Microsoft is going to do the same thing that they did with Windows XP and Windows Vista. Windows 8 is here to stay. I do not believe that Microsoft is going to rethink its strategy and make Windows 9 closer to Windows 7.
Why?
Because I think that Microsoft has recognized the trend of the future, fewer and fewer PCs and more and more mobile devices. They have a strong entry in the smartphone market. They dominate the PC market. What they need is an entry into the growing tablet market.
The strategy behind Windows 8 and it's sister OS Windows RT is two OSes, one UI. There are constant rumors that Apple is moving in the direction of making MacOS more like iOS, and this is sort of the same thing, except that since Microsoft already owns the PC market, they are working down into the tablet market, while Apple, who grew on the back of iOS in the smartphone market pushed iOS up into the tablet market.
Now, think about Microsoft's strategy, one UI to rule them all. This is the Modern (nee Metro) UI, which by the way is similar in appearance to the Windows Phone UI, which had the same name (Metro). You move from your PC to your tablet, and you do not change UI, nothing new to learn, and if you use Windows Live as your log in, all your settings are shared across both devices.
That is the future.
The problem is when I read the opening statements, I agree with most of what Matt Baxter-Reynolds says. He is right, there are several problems with Windows RT. The reliance on the Desktop Mode for Office is a mistake, and the same is true for the Control Panel, Windows Explorer, etc. These feel a little less like a problem in Windows 8, because there is feels like you are opening the hood and really getting into the engine compartment. That feels really clunky in Windows RT.
I wrote before that the success of Windows 8 depends on getting software vendors to write their PC Applications for the Modern UI. I still believe that. Keeping users away from the Desktop makes the experience of the OS much better, and having to go over and over again to the Desktop gives users the impression that the Modern UI is just a thin layer over the real OS. That is not good.
Matt Baxter-Reynolds also claims that Windows RT devices are too expensive. Now, this may or not be true, it depends on how you look at it. He points out that "Surface RT is prices around the average selling price of a normal Windows 8 laptop." Okay, I am sure he meant priced, and he is right, it is priced at exactly the same point as the iPad. Now, don't contradict me, the price of a Surface, without the TouchCover is $499, exactly the same as a 32GB iPad.
Then again, MB-R does not compare Surface to an iPad on price, which was a good, if deceptive idea on his part. It is priced higher than most Android tablets, but I feel that I can say with little chance of truly being proven wrong that the Surface is better than most Android tablets.
Most of the other Windows RT tablets I have seen are clinging to the same price range as the Surface, and that may need to change before Windows RT will really take off. People look at is and ask themselves....
Windows 8 portable, or Windows RT tablet?
Since the price is about the same, they may choose the more versatile PC. But the question is, do they ever ask themselves either of the following questions...
Windows 8 portable or iPad?
They are about the same price.
Windows RT tablet or iPad?
Now, here is the point where I think Microsoft can make some hay. As long as the question is Windows versus Windows, or portable PC versus iPad, I think that Windows RT loses. But, when people look just tablets, then I think Microsoft can make inroads. The real question is....
Windows RT tablet, iPad or Android tablet?
This is where Microsoft can win. Surface can hold its own against the iPad or any Android tablet, except for the two things usually mentioned, reliance on desktop mode, and lack of apps. I keep hearing price, but that shouldn't be an issue. Yes, as generally priced (with TouchCover) Surface is more, but you get more. You don't want the TouchCover, don't buy it.