More Thoughts on Microsoft Surface

Microsoft Surface is one of the coolest concepts in the Tablet arena, and many questions have been raised, some legitimate, because Microsoft failed to mention any details about it.  So, we don't know the exact cost, the exact specifications, the battery life, or...much of anything. 

One thing that has some worried is that Microsoft is entering into the hardware business, in what should be direct competition with their partners.  Personally, I have a bit of faith in Microsoft.  After the successes of the XBox, Windows Phone 7, and Windows 7.  Some will point out that Windows Phone 7 has not been a huge sales success, but anyone who has used it knows that the OS is a success.  It is the best smartphone OS now, even including iOS 6, and only lacks the app ecosystem.  It is not the same sales success, but it is still better. 

The problem for Windows 8/RT should be obvious when you look at the available Windows 7 and Android tablets.  From the standpoint of hardware, they just don't measure up to the iPad.  The Transformer Prime is probably the best example of the lot, and it comes fairly close to the iPad, and it is priced accordingly.  Most just don't really come close to the iPad, but they do offer the advantage of price. 

Of course, Windows tablets do not offer the advantage of price.  Most of them cost hundreds more than an iPad.  Of course, you are getting a true computer, a PC and not just an iPod Touch with a larger screen.  Which leads to a quick (hopefully) aside. 

iPad fans will say that the iPad is much more than an iPod Touch with a larger screen.  They are wrong.  The internals of the iPad are the same as the iPhone, same processor, same graphics, same everything except the screen.  Now, I do not want to understate the importance of that larger screen.  Apps that are unusable on a 3.5" screen are wonderful on a 9" screen, but that really is the only difference. 

The true difference between the iPad is the variety of apps.  As I said, apps that would be unusable on an iPhone are wonderful on an iPad, but that has nothing to do with Apple.  Apple didn't create a better device, they just attached a bigger screen.  It is the developers who deserve the credit for making the iPad into something more than an iPod Touch with a larger screen.  Well, not really, because that is still what it is. 

Now, close the aside and back to Surface. 

Windows tablets today are PCs without keyboards.  Full PC processors, full I/O support and all the rest.  But, no matter what we look at, we see that the Windows tablets available today are trying very hard to compete against the iPad, and they fail, because they have less battery life,greater size and weight, overly long boot times, and an interface that is not designed for Touch.  Yes, Windows 7 is touch ready, it supports two finger gestures and most of the other cool touch features, but the parts of the UI are so small you cannot use them with your fingers in many cases.  But, the real point is that to stay close to the iPad in price, they have had to skimp on the hardware, and it shows. 

The takeaway from all this, is that Microsoft cannot rely on the OEMs to produce a top of the line tablet.  Even the best Android tablet on the market has admitted that it cannot go head to head against the iPad at the same price.  This is important, because Windows RT tablets are going to be Android tablets with a different OS.  You should be able to take the Asus Transformer Prime and flash it with Windows RT. 

That's for ARM tablets, but if we look at the Windows 7 tablets, it is the same story.  Too many compromises to stay close to the iPad in price.  Just recently, we have see a few Windows 7 tablets that have attempted to do it right, the Asus EeeSlate, Samsung Slate, and the Dell Latitude ST.  Overall, these look quite good, and they are priced well above the iPad, but they still don't quite measure up. 

What Microsoft needed was a flagship.  The Windows equivalent of the Google Nexus.  Something that shows just exactly what you can do with Windows 8/RT, and I believe that Microsoft did not have enough faith in any of its OEM partners to leave that job up to them. 

When I remember that there were rumors over a year ago that Microsoft was thinking of crossing over into hardware for tablets, it makes me wonder if Microsoft didn't pull aside one or more of their partners to ask them to produce a flagship tablet.  If Microsoft didn't point out to Dell or HP for example that they needed a flagship tablet.  I am also wondering if Dell and HP didn't turn them down.   

HP already has the Windows Slate disaster standing against them.  Steve Ballmer must have felt like an idiot, when HP dropped the Slate after acquiring Palm.  Steve Ballmer made the HP Slate a centerpiece of his presentation, and then HP dropped it.  That must have seemed like a real stab in the back.  Dell has never done a Windows tablet until now, and if the Latitude St is the best Dell could do, then I can understand Microsoft leaving them behind. 

Microsoft needs a flagship tablet for Windows 8/RT, and no other partner was big enough to make it.  Especially for the Windows 8 tablet, they needed a big PC OEM and that really means either HP or Dell.  With them out of the running, Microsoft has only one choice, make it themselves.  And so, we have Surface. 

Microsoft said that Surface will have a price comparable to other tablets, and Surface Pro comparable to ultrabooks.  Let's rephrase that.  Surface will have a price that matches the iPad.  Surface Pro will have a price that comparable to the low to middle range of the ultrabooks, maybe even higher. 

This is the flagship.  The is the pinnacle.  Surface is a match for the iPad, at least in my opinion.  Give a choice between an iPad and Surface, I would not hesitate in choosing Surface.  Surface will be a premium tablet, both RT and Pro.  Every OEM will be able to produce a tablet and sell if for less than Surface, and that is the idea.  Microsoft will take the high road, up where the iPad is, where the real risk is.  No other tablet has succeeded in that price range.  OEMs will be able to produce lesser tablets and sell them at a lower price. 

I think that these lower priced tablets will be critical to the success of Windows 8/RT.  I am not sure that Windows RT can beat the iPad if Surface is the only player.  Microsoft needs a lower priced entry point for Windows RT.  Surface Pro and Windows 8 should be a different story.  Yes, they will be competing with the iPad, but they are clearly going to cost more, but when you compare the full computing power of Windows 8, I think you will have a compelling alternative to iPad, Android and even Windows RT. 

So, I hope that I have given a few extra points to consider.  Unlike some, I don't think that Microsoft threw its OEM partners under the bus.  I doubt that this was a big surprise to them.  I think they knew this was coming, and they will be scrambling to fill in underneath Surface, and to provide other innovative solutions, like the ones we saw at Computex recently.  I think that HP and Dell might have been given a chance to produce something like Surface and been refused.  Though I also think it is possible that Steve Ballmer did not make the offer to HP after the Slate embarassment. 

One final aside.  There is a rumor that Windows RT is going to cost $85 a copy.  So far as I know, this was a single rumor, unconfirmed that has been repeated so often by the Tech Media that they all believe it now.  I don't buy it.  What I see if a bunch of anti-MS tech writers (which is most of them) trotting out tired reasons why Microsoft will fail without making any attempt to verify the rumor.  They want Microsoft to fail, and so they repeat any rumor that makes it look like Microsoft is full of idiots. 

A price tag that high would cripple sales of Windows RT tablets.  Windows RT tablets will be competing directly against Android tablets and they do not do enough more to justify paying nearly $100 more for Windows RT.  Remember, the hardware is the same, therefore the cost is the same.  With the already tiny margins in the tablet field (outside of iPad), you cannot expect OEMs to take $85 less on each sale, and if you price them $85 more than an identically specced Android tablet, then they simply won't sell. 

I don't believe that Surface is Microsoft's attempt to push the OEMs out of the way and take over completely whatever market there may be for Windows tablets.  I believe that Microsoft wanted a no compromise flagship tablet that would stand up to direct comparison to the iPad, and I believe that Microsoft decided that the only way to get it was to make it themselves. 

Below is the chart of the prices of iPad and all the top Android tablets that I could find.  Where ever possible, I pulled prices from the manufacturers website.  I was not looking to find the lowest available price, but the manufacturer's suggested retail price. 

	8GB	16GB	32GB	64GB
iPad		$499	$599	$699
Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1		$499	$599
Galaxy Tab 2		$399
Acer Iconia A200	$329	$349
Acer Iconia A500		$349
Acer Iconia A700			$449
Asus EeePad Transformer TF101		$377	$599
Asus EeePad Transformer TF300			$384
Asus Transformer Prime		$379	$499	$599
Sony		$399	$499
Toshiba Thrive	$379	$399	$479
Toshiba Excite		$449	$529	$649
Toshiba Excite LE		$529	$599
Motorola Xoom		$499
Motorola Xyboard		$499
Lenovo IdeaPad S	$399	$449	$499
Lenovo ThinkPad Tablet		$499	$569	$669