The Future of Windows RT

This is a follow up to my post To Windows 8 or not to Windows 8, but it is mostly inspired by a different post.

 

Is Windows 8 a bad OS for tablets? It's time to decide...

 

Though many of the commenters did not like the article, but I did.  Unlike his conclusion in the debate, the author decided that Windows RT wasn't a bad OS for tablets, though he did feel that it was not really there yet and needed work.  I think I can sum up the work needed for Windows RT.

1. Get rid of desktop mode.
2. Fix the mail app

Now, that sounds simple, but getting rid of the desktop means porting Office to WinRT (that is the programming layer for Modern Apps), and I do not think that was ready.  Yes, what I am saying is that Office held back the development of Windows RT.  I got no proof, but it is still what I believe.

 

So, where does Windows RT go from here? 

 

Personally, I expect Windows RT sales to be a little pathetic for a while.  There are problems, though most of the ones put forward are ridiculous. Only the two above need to really be addressed by Microsoft.  The other big problem is the lack of apps, and that will fix itself over time, especially with Microsoft working with developers to ensure they (the developers) are making money.

 

Everything needs to be written to work in the Modern UI, Office, File Explorer, Control Panel, etc.  Now, this goes beyond just the built in apps, as I said in a previous post, Microsoft needs to find a way to encourage big 3rd party developers, like Adobe, to move their apps to WinRT.

 

Another key for Windows RT is the success of Windows 8.  Let us look into the future.

 

Windows 8 may or may not be as huge a success as Windows XP and Windows 7, but just like Vista, it is going to end up on a lot of PCs, and Windows 8 does not have the disadvantages of Vista.  Vista's problems were under the hood, and there Windows 8 is streamlined and powerful.  A year from now, I see lots of PCs with Windows 8, and then the change begins.

 

Today, if you use a Windows PC, it is likely to be Windows 7, and if you decide you want a tablet, then you are looking at iOS on the iPad and iPad mini, Android on a selection of 7-11 inch tablets, Amazon Kindle, I will even throw in Nook for good measure, and Windows RT.  You've probably been using Windows for years, gone from Windows 95, to 98, maybe 2000, finally XP and now 7.  There have been UI changes, but it you went straight from Windows 95 to Windows 7, you would learn it very quickly. 

 

Now, look at the array of tablets.  None of them is anything like Windows 7.  One of them says it is Windows, but it don't look like any Windows you remember.  So, buying a tablet will mean learning a new OS, so they all start off even from that standpoint.  To figure out which one you want, and assuming you want to make a considered intelligent decision, then you are going to have to figure out the strength and weaknesses of each.

 

My real point here is that Windows RT does not offer any specific advantages over the others.  Yes, it has some advantages, but iOS has more apps, so does Android.  Kindle has all the incredible Amazon content.  Right now, Windows RT cannot match those.

 

Now, jump forward a year or two.  You've been using Windows 8 on your PC for a year or so.  The UI may have taken a little getting used to, but you did it.  You know how to work the UI.  If you bought a portable (trackpad) or a touchscreen then you may even have learned some of the gestures.

 

Now, you go and look at tablets, and Windows RT offers a big advantage that none of the others do...well, unless you bought another tablet OS previously.  You already know the interface.  It looks just like your PC.  I think this makes Windows RT a much bigger draw than it is today, familiarity will push you towards Windows RT, or towards whatever you already have.

 

In two years, the Windows Phone app ecosystem has grown to the point where it is only a minor deficit.  The same will happen with Windows 8, and Windows RT will actually be the big winner from that.

 

So, the future of Windows RT may be slow sales in the short term, but in one to two years, RT will have matured.  I think that a full WinRT version of Office will appear and the desktop in Windows RT will go away, providing a consistent smooth experience.  The built in apps will improve, and the number and quality of 3rd party apps will improve.

 

And, when you go to look at a tablet, Windows RT will look good, because you already know the interface, and because you will already know most of the apps you want to download (from Windows 8).  The transition from PC to tablet will be simple and smooth.