The Wrong Analogy

Why iOS won't become Apple's 'Windows XP'

This analogy is hugely flawed.  Windows XP did not remain the dominant OS for so long because Microsoft failed to innovate.  XP remained the dominant OS because Windows Vista failed.  We can debate the reasons why Windows Vista failed. We can even debate whether or not it truly was a failure, since it shipped over 60 million copies.  But, my point is that in the court of public opinion, it was judged a failure.

People decided they did not want Windows Vista, and so they stayed with XP.  They didn't upgrade, or they even downgraded.  Windows 7 has been a huge success and has become the successor to Windows XP as the dominant PC OS.

Adrian Kingsley-Hughes draws this conclusion though..."Not only did this 'upgrade ennui' affect Microsoft, but it also helped to put a damper on PC sales and the entire PC industry."

I think this is a bit much.  Windows Vista did not cause the PC industry to decline.  In fact, I would say that it was only one, and relatively insignificant factor in that downturn, but, that is not the focus of this post.

Apple does not need to worry about iOS being like Windows XP.  In fact, I think they would be very happy with that.  Apple does not need to spend a second studying the history of Windows XP, but they might benefit from studying the history of another Microsoft OS...Windows Mobile.

Windows Mobile, or as it was then, Windows CE, entered the PDA market at a time when it was dominated by Palm, and took over that market. Microsoft's success and Palm's failure is also a subject for another post, not today. Unfortunately, Microsoft was caught out by two changes, the switch from PDA to smartphone, and iOS. iOS was the drastic change.

What Apple should be worried about is the NEXT drastic change. Either, they need to be provider of that drastic change and again lead the market (which they have not really done since the release of the iPhone 4), or they need to be ready to react quickly to changes (which is what the iPhone 5 and iPad mini are).

This is the lesson that Microsoft may finally be learning, but only the future will tell if Microsoft has really learned it, or if Apple will get caught out.

Somewhere out there is the next drastic change, the next change as drastic as the iPhone and iPad. Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon are all trying to figure out what it is, so that they can be first, but being first doesn't help as much as it used to, because everyone is trying to be ready to react to whatever comes.

Microsoft's present dilemma comes from the fact that it was not prepared to react fast enough to the iPhone. It thought Windows Mobile would do okay. It didn't and Google grabbed the second entry slot with Android. The iPad was the next really major turn, and Google and OEMs were ready to react with Android tablets. Microsoft? Not so much. Now, Microsoft finds itself running in third place (and rather distantly) in the two major growth markets of the 21st Century.